Impact of Travel Between Patches for Spatial Spread of Disease
Identifieur interne : 003977 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 003976; suivant : 003978Impact of Travel Between Patches for Spatial Spread of Disease
Auteurs : Ying-Hen Hsieh [République populaire de Chine] ; P. Van Den Driessche [Canada] ; Lin Wang [Canada]Source :
- Bulletin of Mathematical Biology [ 0092-8240 ] ; 2007-05-01.
Descripteurs français
- Wicri :
- topic : Contrôle à la frontière.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
Abstract
Abstract: A multipatch model is proposed to study the impact of travel on the spatial spread of disease between patches with different level of disease prevalence. The basic reproduction number for the ith patch in isolation is obtained along with the basic reproduction number of the system of patches, ℜ0. Inequalities describing the relationship between these numbers are also given. For a two-patch model with one high prevalence patch and one low prevalence patch, results pertaining to the dependence of ℜ0 on the travel rates between the two patches are obtained. For parameter values relevant for influenza, these results show that, while banning travel of infectives from the low to the high prevalence patch always contributes to disease control, banning travel of symptomatic travelers only from the high to the low prevalence patch could adversely affect the containment of the outbreak under certain ranges of parameter values. Moreover, banning all travel of infected individuals from the high to the low prevalence patch could result in the low prevalence patch becoming diseasefree, while the high prevalence patch becomes even more disease-prevalent, with the resulting number of infectives in this patch alone exceeding the combined number of infectives in both patches without border control. Under the set of parameter values used, our results demonstrate that if border control is properly implemented, then it could contribute to stopping the spatial spread of disease between patches.
Url:
DOI: 10.1007/s11538-006-9169-6
Affiliations:
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Van Den Driessche</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>British Columbia</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country wicri:rule="url">Canada</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Lin" sort="Wang, Lin" uniqKey="Wang L" first="Lin" last="Wang">Lin Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>British Columbia</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j">Bulletin of Mathematical Biology</title><title level="j" type="sub">A Journal Devoted to Research at the Junction of Computational, Theoretical and Experimental BiologyOfficial Journal of The Society for Mathematical Biology</title><title level="j" type="abbrev">Bull. Math. Biol.</title><idno type="ISSN">0092-8240</idno><idno type="eISSN">1522-9602</idno><imprint><publisher>Springer-Verlag</publisher><pubPlace>New York</pubPlace><date type="published" when="2007-05-01">2007-05-01</date><biblScope unit="volume">69</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">4</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="1355">1355</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="1375">1375</biblScope></imprint><idno type="ISSN">0092-8240</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0092-8240</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Basic reproduction number</term><term>Border control</term><term>Influenza</term><term>Multipatch model</term><term>Spatial spread</term><term>Travel rate</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Contrôle à la frontière</term></keywords></textClass><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Abstract: A multipatch model is proposed to study the impact of travel on the spatial spread of disease between patches with different level of disease prevalence. The basic reproduction number for the ith patch in isolation is obtained along with the basic reproduction number of the system of patches, ℜ0. Inequalities describing the relationship between these numbers are also given. For a two-patch model with one high prevalence patch and one low prevalence patch, results pertaining to the dependence of ℜ0 on the travel rates between the two patches are obtained. For parameter values relevant for influenza, these results show that, while banning travel of infectives from the low to the high prevalence patch always contributes to disease control, banning travel of symptomatic travelers only from the high to the low prevalence patch could adversely affect the containment of the outbreak under certain ranges of parameter values. Moreover, banning all travel of infected individuals from the high to the low prevalence patch could result in the low prevalence patch becoming diseasefree, while the high prevalence patch becomes even more disease-prevalent, with the resulting number of infectives in this patch alone exceeding the combined number of infectives in both patches without border control. Under the set of parameter values used, our results demonstrate that if border control is properly implemented, then it could contribute to stopping the spatial spread of disease between patches.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Canada</li><li>République populaire de Chine</li></country></list><tree><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Hsieh, Ying Hen" sort="Hsieh, Ying Hen" uniqKey="Hsieh Y" first="Ying-Hen" last="Hsieh">Ying-Hen Hsieh</name></noRegion></country><country name="Canada"><noRegion><name sortKey="Van Den Driessche, P" sort="Van Den Driessche, P" uniqKey="Van Den Driessche P" first="P." last="Van Den Driessche">P. Van Den Driessche</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Van Den Driessche, P" sort="Van Den Driessche, P" uniqKey="Van Den Driessche P" first="P." last="Van Den Driessche">P. Van Den Driessche</name><name sortKey="Wang, Lin" sort="Wang, Lin" uniqKey="Wang L" first="Lin" last="Wang">Lin Wang</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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